立即打開
美國房地產市場遇冷,劇變正在降臨

美國房地產市場遇冷,劇變正在降臨

LANCE LAMBERT 2021年08月10日
購房者終于沒那么痛快地花大價錢買房了。

如果要描述2021年房地產市場的節奏,一個詞:極速狂飆。今年房市的競購戰十分激烈,房價漲幅創下歷史新高。

但這種浪潮正在發生變化。

疫情期間,大批購房者涌入房地產市場,清空了房屋庫存,市場庫存連續下降12個月。截至4月,房屋庫存較上年同期已驚人地下降了53%。然而,最近趨勢曲線已經出現了變化:待售房屋數量已連續上漲兩個月。5月,realtor.com上掛出的房屋數量增加了3%,6月又上漲了9%。這還不是全部:上周數據顯示,新房銷售正在下滑,6月的銷售速度是疫情爆發以來最慢的。種種跡象都表明,市場正稍稍向有利于買家的方向轉變。

房地產市場為何突然遇冷?因為購房者終于沒那么痛快地花大價錢買房了。

房地產市場研究公司Zonda的首席經濟學家阿里?沃爾夫向《財富》雜志表示:“過去一年,房地產市場過熱,房價天花板看不到頭,部分買家對此已經難以接受。”Zonda上個月對房地產建筑商的一項調查發現,61%的建筑商感受到了買家更大的阻力。

買家的猶豫是意料之中的。畢竟,房價不可能一直以17%的年增長率上漲。說到底,房價還是要受到家庭預算的限制。

市場可能還會繼續降溫。正如《財富》雜志上周報道,隨著最后一批刺激措施開始失效,房市節奏可能放緩。聯邦政府房屋止贖禁令于7月31日到期。接下來是房貸延期支付計劃,這項允許部分借款人暫停還款的政策將于9月30日失效。目前,仍有175萬借款人受貸款延期計劃保護,占美國房貸人數的3.5%。房主如仍處于經濟緊張狀態無法繼續還貸,可以選擇賣掉房產。當然,如果這種情況發生,房地產庫存將進一步增長。

但降溫并不一定意味著房價會下跌。事實上,研究公司CoreLogic預測,到2022年6月,房價將再上漲3.2%。毫無疑問:這個市場仍然是賣方市場。

“需要注意的是,許多房屋的銷售速度仍然非常快,一上市就賣掉了。”沃爾夫說,“現在的變化是,經歷競價戰或售價高于要價的房屋數量出現了非常輕微的下降……一些房屋現在的售價低于要價。”

CoreLogic等研究公司之所以認為房價會繼續上漲,歸根結底在于人口結構。出生于1989年至1993年的這批人(千禧一代中人數最多的年齡段)正步入30歲,對于他們而言,首套房的選購真正提上了日程,我們正處在這樣一個五年周期的中間。而房地產建筑商卻沒有為此做好準備:2010年代,房產商仍在2008年房地產泡沫和隨后的止贖危機帶來的金融創傷中掙扎,整個行業都陷入低迷。除此之外,疫情引起的衰退導致抵押貸款利率降低,加上居家辦公的職場人更愿意去追求買得起的房產,疫情給房產市場帶來的多重利好仍在持續。(財富中文網)

譯者:Agatha

如果要描述2021年房地產市場的節奏,一個詞:極速狂飆。今年房市的競購戰十分激烈,房價漲幅創下歷史新高。

但這種浪潮正在發生變化。

疫情期間,大批購房者涌入房地產市場,清空了房屋庫存,市場庫存連續下降12個月。截至4月,房屋庫存較上年同期已驚人地下降了53%。然而,最近趨勢曲線已經出現了變化:待售房屋數量已連續上漲兩個月。5月,realtor.com上掛出的房屋數量增加了3%,6月又上漲了9%。這還不是全部:上周數據顯示,新房銷售正在下滑,6月的銷售速度是疫情爆發以來最慢的。種種跡象都表明,市場正稍稍向有利于買家的方向轉變。

房地產市場為何突然遇冷?因為購房者終于沒那么痛快地花大價錢買房了。

房地產市場研究公司Zonda的首席經濟學家阿里?沃爾夫向《財富》雜志表示:“過去一年,房地產市場過熱,房價天花板看不到頭,部分買家對此已經難以接受。”Zonda上個月對房地產建筑商的一項調查發現,61%的建筑商感受到了買家更大的阻力。

買家的猶豫是意料之中的。畢竟,房價不可能一直以17%的年增長率上漲。說到底,房價還是要受到家庭預算的限制。

市場可能還會繼續降溫。正如《財富》雜志上周報道,隨著最后一批刺激措施開始失效,房市節奏可能放緩。聯邦政府房屋止贖禁令于7月31日到期。接下來是房貸延期支付計劃,這項允許部分借款人暫停還款的政策將于9月30日失效。目前,仍有175萬借款人受貸款延期計劃保護,占美國房貸人數的3.5%。房主如仍處于經濟緊張狀態無法繼續還貸,可以選擇賣掉房產。當然,如果這種情況發生,房地產庫存將進一步增長。

但降溫并不一定意味著房價會下跌。事實上,研究公司CoreLogic預測,到2022年6月,房價將再上漲3.2%。毫無疑問:這個市場仍然是賣方市場。

“需要注意的是,許多房屋的銷售速度仍然非常快,一上市就賣掉了。”沃爾夫說,“現在的變化是,經歷競價戰或售價高于要價的房屋數量出現了非常輕微的下降……一些房屋現在的售價低于要價。”

CoreLogic等研究公司之所以認為房價會繼續上漲,歸根結底在于人口結構。出生于1989年至1993年的這批人(千禧一代中人數最多的年齡段)正步入30歲,對于他們而言,首套房的選購真正提上了日程,我們正處在這樣一個五年周期的中間。而房地產建筑商卻沒有為此做好準備:2010年代,房產商仍在2008年房地產泡沫和隨后的止贖危機帶來的金融創傷中掙扎,整個行業都陷入低迷。除此之外,疫情引起的衰退導致抵押貸款利率降低,加上居家辦公的職場人更愿意去追求買得起的房產,疫情給房產市場帶來的多重利好仍在持續。(財富中文網)

譯者:Agatha

Breakneck. That's the best way to describe the pace of the 2021 housing market. The bidding wars got so intense this year that home price growth set an all-time record.

But the tide is turning.

The rush of buyers into the housing market during the pandemic absolutely crushed housing inventory—the number of homes on the market—with that figure falling for 12 consecutive months. By April, housing inventory was down a staggering 53% from a year earlier. However, the trajectory has flipped: For two straight months the number of homes for sale has gone up. Homes listing on realtor.com rose 3% in May, then again by 9% in June. That's not all: We learned last week that new home sales are falling—their pace in June was the slowest since the onset of the pandemic. Every indication is that the market is shifting a bit in buyers’ favor.

Why the sudden cooling? Home shoppers are finally showing some reluctance to pay top dollar.

"The housing market was too hot for its own good over the past year, and we’ve seen some buyers bump up against an invisible price ceiling," Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a housing market research firm, tells Fortune. A Zonda survey of homebuilders last month finds that 61% of builders are seeing more resistance from homebuyers.

This buyer hesitation was expected. After all, home prices can't continue to grow at a 17% year-over-year rate indefinitely. At the end of the day, household budgets can stretch only so far.

And more cooling could be on the way. As Fortune reported last week, the pace of real estate sales might slow as the last of the stimulus protections begin to lapse. The foreclosure moratorium, which prevented foreclosures on federally backed mortgages, came to an end on July 31. Next up will be the mortgage forbearance program, which allows some borrowers to pause their payments; it lapses on Sept. 30. That forbearance program still protects 1.75 million borrowers, or 3.5% of U.S. mortgages. Homeowners still hurting financially could opt to sell their home rather than restart their mortgage payments. Of course, if that happens, housing inventory would rise further.

But cooling doesn't mean home prices will fall. In fact, the research firm CoreLogic forecasts home prices will climb another 3.2% by June 2022. Make no mistake: This is still a seller's market.

"It’s important to note that many homes are still selling almost as quickly as they hit the market," Wolf says. "The difference today is that there’s been ever so slight softening in the number of homes undergoing a bidding war or selling above the ask price…some homes are now selling below ask price."

The reason that research firms like CoreLogic think prices can go higher boils down to demographics. We're in the middle of the five-year period when the largest tranche of millennials, those born between 1989 and 1993, are hitting their thirties—the age when first-time homebuying really kicks into gear. That's something homebuilders haven't been preparing for: During the 2010s, homebuilding tanked as builders struggled with the financial scars of the 2008 housing bubble and subsequent foreclosure crisis. Not to mention, the housing market is still benefiting from the perfect storm created by the pandemic: recession-induced low mortgage rates, coupled with remote workers who are willing to uproot in pursuit of affordable real estate.

最新:
  • 熱讀文章
  • 熱門視頻
活動
掃碼打開財富Plus App
茄子视频破解版app在线下载污官方下载无限-成年茄子视频懂你更多-茄子视频直播app