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美國樓市終于開始降溫,但房價未必

美國樓市終于開始降溫,但房價未必

Lance Lambert 2021年08月18日
房屋庫存量增多和市場降溫,并不意味著房價會下跌。

2021年的美國房地產市場,一方面是購房人的競購潮,另一方面則是待售房產不足,成了許多潛在購房人的噩夢。

但火爆的房地產市場終于開始小幅降溫。realtor.com網站在上周公布的數據顯示,7月,美國待售房產數量增加10%。自待售房產數量從今年春季走出低谷以來,總漲幅達到23%。

房屋庫存量增多對購房人而言是好消息。面對美國歷史上競爭最激烈、最緊張的房地產市場之一,購房人不得不相互競價。事實上,在新冠疫情爆發后的前12個月,待售房屋庫存減少了超過50%。今年春季和夏季的房屋庫存水平處在40多年來的最低水平。

但房屋庫存量增多和市場降溫,并不意味著房價會下跌。業內人士預測2008年的房市崩潰不會再次發生;相反他們認為市場會恢復正常。據房地產調研公司CoreLogic統計,去年,美國房價暴漲17.2%,令人瞠目結舌。該公司預測未來12個月,房價將相對小幅上漲3.2%。

約翰?伯恩斯房地產咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的副研究主管德韋恩?巴赫曼告訴《財富》雜志:“房價上漲就像開車。我們以前的行駛速度是120英里/小時,現在降到100英里/小時,而正常的速度是75英里/小時。我們需要房產庫存水平保持穩定。這將穩定定價環境。我認為我們正在朝著這個方向發展。”

到底發生了什么?

對新手來說,房地產市場恢復了季節性變化。除了去年以外,每年這個時候,度假和返校等活動都會轉移購房人的注意力,房地產市場隨之有所降溫。

Home. LLC的首席執行官尼克?沙告訴《財富》雜志:“2020年,房地產市場沒有出現季節性變化。但我們的研究預測,2021年,房產庫存會恢復季節性變化,開始降溫……待售房產庫存將增加,但距離恢復到正常庫存水平仍有很長的路要走。”與CoreLogic的觀點類似,他的預測表明,未來幾個月房價上漲速度會有所放緩,但依舊會維持上漲的趨勢。

然而,這并非都是由于季節性原因。巴赫曼表示,購房人開始反感過高的房價,因此市場才開始降溫。當然,這是不可避免的:房價上漲速度永遠不能超過收入增長的速度。

巴赫曼說:“去年房價瘋漲,但這是不可持續的……如果房價漲幅過高,人們會停止購買,他們會這樣想:‘我得觀望一段時間,等到市場降溫。’”

房屋庫存增多不止受到購房人的歡迎。許多賣房人也將從中受益。美國待售房產數量不足導致許多潛在賣房人放棄將房產掛牌出售。畢竟,如果把房子賣掉,他們就很難在庫存緊張的市場中找到其他房產。隨著庫存量反彈,潛在賣房人最終可能會出售現有的房產。這將進一步增加房屋庫存量。

盡管最近待售房屋數量增加,但庫存水平與新冠疫情之前相比依舊減少了42%。庫存緊張的房地產市場不可能在一夜之間恢復正常。至少在史上最低的住房抵押貸款利率和大批千禧一代開始購房這一趨勢的推動下,房地產市場會繼續上漲。(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

2021年的美國房地產市場,一方面是購房人的競購潮,另一方面則是待售房產不足,成了許多潛在購房人的噩夢。

但火爆的房地產市場終于開始小幅降溫。realtor.com網站在上周公布的數據顯示,7月,美國待售房產數量增加10%。自待售房產數量從今年春季走出低谷以來,總漲幅達到23%。

房屋庫存量增多對購房人而言是好消息。面對美國歷史上競爭最激烈、最緊張的房地產市場之一,購房人不得不相互競價。事實上,在新冠疫情爆發后的前12個月,待售房屋庫存減少了超過50%。今年春季和夏季的房屋庫存水平處在40多年來的最低水平。

但房屋庫存量增多和市場降溫,并不意味著房價會下跌。業內人士預測2008年的房市崩潰不會再次發生;相反他們認為市場會恢復正常。據房地產調研公司CoreLogic統計,去年,美國房價暴漲17.2%,令人瞠目結舌。該公司預測未來12個月,房價將相對小幅上漲3.2%。

約翰?伯恩斯房地產咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的副研究主管德韋恩?巴赫曼告訴《財富》雜志:“房價上漲就像開車。我們以前的行駛速度是120英里/小時,現在降到100英里/小時,而正常的速度是75英里/小時。我們需要房產庫存水平保持穩定。這將穩定定價環境。我認為我們正在朝著這個方向發展。”

到底發生了什么?

對新手來說,房地產市場恢復了季節性變化。除了去年以外,每年這個時候,度假和返校等活動都會轉移購房人的注意力,房地產市場隨之有所降溫。

Home. LLC的首席執行官尼克?沙告訴《財富》雜志:“2020年,房地產市場沒有出現季節性變化。但我們的研究預測,2021年,房產庫存會恢復季節性變化,開始降溫……待售房產庫存將增加,但距離恢復到正常庫存水平仍有很長的路要走。”與CoreLogic的觀點類似,他的預測表明,未來幾個月房價上漲速度會有所放緩,但依舊會維持上漲的趨勢。

然而,這并非都是由于季節性原因。巴赫曼表示,購房人開始反感過高的房價,因此市場才開始降溫。當然,這是不可避免的:房價上漲速度永遠不能超過收入增長的速度。

巴赫曼說:“去年房價瘋漲,但這是不可持續的……如果房價漲幅過高,人們會停止購買,他們會這樣想:‘我得觀望一段時間,等到市場降溫。’”

房屋庫存增多不止受到購房人的歡迎。許多賣房人也將從中受益。美國待售房產數量不足導致許多潛在賣房人放棄將房產掛牌出售。畢竟,如果把房子賣掉,他們就很難在庫存緊張的市場中找到其他房產。隨著庫存量反彈,潛在賣房人最終可能會出售現有的房產。這將進一步增加房屋庫存量。

盡管最近待售房屋數量增加,但庫存水平與新冠疫情之前相比依舊減少了42%。庫存緊張的房地產市場不可能在一夜之間恢復正常。至少在史上最低的住房抵押貸款利率和大批千禧一代開始購房這一趨勢的推動下,房地產市場會繼續上漲。(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

Between the bidding wars and lack of homes for sale, the 2021 housing market has been nothing short of a nightmare for many would-be buyers.

But the red-hot market is finally starting to cool down a bit. The number of homes for sale in the country rose 10% in July, according to data released last week by realtor.com. In all, the figure is up 23% since bottoming out this spring.

Increasing levels of inventory is a good sign for buyers who've been pitted against one another in one of the most competitive—and tight—housing markets in the nation's history. Indeed, during the first 12 months of the pandemic, inventory for sale fell by more than 50%. Inventory levels this spring and summer were at their lowest in more than 40 years.

But rising inventory and a cooling market don’t mean home shoppers should expect prices to fall. Industry insiders don't foresee a 2008-style housing crash; instead, they see a market returning to normal. Over the past year, home prices soared a mind-boggling 17.2%, according to real estate research firm CoreLogic. That company forecasts a more modest 3.2% appreciation in the next 12-month window.

"We were going 120 mph; now we're going 100 mph. A normal year is 75 mph," Devyn Bachman, vice of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told Fortune. "We need inventory levels to stabilize. That will stabilize the pricing environment as well. And I think we're heading in that direction."

What’s going on?

For starters, seasonality is coming back to the market. Around this time every year—with the exception of last year—housing cools a bit as shoppers get distracted by vacations and the restart of school.

"After skipping seasonal trends in 2020, our research projects that housing inventory will follow seasonal patterns in 2021, and begin cooling down…Housing inventory for sale will trend upward, but we are still a long way off from normal inventory levels," Nik Shah, CEO of Home.LLC, told Fortune. Similar to CoreLogic, his forecast shows home appreciation decelerating in the coming months but still moving upward.

This isn't all driven by seasonality, however. Bachman said the market is cooling as homebuyers start to push back at sky-high home prices. Of course, this was always inevitable: Prices can't outpace income growth forever.

“You’ve had crazy-strong home price appreciation over the last year, that is unsustainable…When you have that much appreciation, people pause and say, ‘I need to step back and let things cool down,’” Bachman said.

This uptick in housing inventory is welcomed by more than just home shoppers. Many sellers will benefit too. The lack of homes for sale in the U.S. has persuaded some would-be home sellers to not put their home up for sale. After all, if they sold, the tight market would make it hard for them to find something else. As inventory levels begin to go back up, these potential sellers might finally make the plunge. And that would help to further increase inventory levels.

Even with the recent uptick in homes for sale, inventory levels are still down 42% from pre-pandemic levels. That tight market won't go back to normal overnight. Not when historically low mortgage rates and a wave of millennials looking to buy are still driving the market forward.

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